Forecast Last Updated at Thursday, July 2, 2009 at 7:02PM

Still Very Nice; Wet Weather Hits By Late Weekend

Sunshine with scattered clouds will be the weather theme Friday. The Fourth looks nice, but with a chance for late day or nighttime showers. Sunday will turn decidedly cloudier/wetter. Plan your holiday weekend outdoor activities for Saturday as we expect Sunday to be much more unsettled.

Thursday Hi: 63 Lo: 56 Partly cloudy overnight; NW wind 5-15 mph

Friday Hi: 68 Lo: 57 Bright sunshine; Nice; NW wind 5-10 mph

Saturday Hi: 68 Lo: 58 Partly cloudy daytime; More clouds at night; A chance for a late day or nighttime shower or t-shower; NW wind 5-10 mph

Sunday Hi: 67 Lo: 61 Plenty of clouds; Showers & t-showers

Monday Hi: 68 Lo: 61 Lots of clouds; Showers & thundershowers likely

Further Out

Tuesday - Partly cloudy; Still a chance for a shower or thundershower; High in the upper 60s; Low in the mid 50s
Wednesday - Scattered clouds; Nice weather to be outside; High near 70 degrees; Low in the mid 50s

Forecast Discussion

We expect more sunshine than clouds through Friday along with temperatures that will continue to run a few degrees below normal for early July.

Fourth of July weekend weather becomes more complicated. A developing frontal zone connected to low pressure organizing in the central Plains will send an area of showers and thunderstorms out of the Plains and into the lower Ohio and Tennessee Valley on Saturday. Some of this activity may spill into the mountains late on the Fourth. Whether this has a significant impact on fireworks displays or not remains a big question. As usual, fireworks shows will have to keep an eye on the radar. What is not in question is the wetter day expected for Sunday. Clouds and showers will likely keep temperatures suppressed as well.

The front may be semi-stationary just south of the state on Monday and Tuesday. Monday looks like the wetter of the two days, although we'll have to hang on to a chance for a shower or thundershower on Tuesday as well.

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Summer Rain Forecasts

I'm asked often about wording for summer shower and thundershower coverage. If we think no one in the region will see rain, we will not mention it in the forecast. If we think only single, renegade thundershower is possible (less than 20% coverage area), we'll generally leave it out of the forecast but mention in the discussion section (or possibility use language like "slightest chance", "stray", or "renegade"). If we think around 20 percent of the region will see rain on a given day, we'll include in the forecast box and use language like "slight chance", "isolated", or "small chance", etc. Widely scattered" indicates coverage of about 25 percent. "Scattered" generally means 30%-50% coverage. When about 50 percent of the region is expected to see rain, we'll use phrases like "good chance". When rain chances are in the 60-70 percent realm, a "likely" qualifier used, and above that, we don't use any particular qualification and just say "showers or thunderstorms". We generally do not use "percent chance of precipitation" in our forecasts--rather we try to focus on when, where, and how much. Isn't that what you really want to know? However, specificity like this in summer forecasts is very difficult. Last Wednesday, we had stations picking up 2" of rain on the same day when others only 20 miles away saw virtually no rain. Forecasting those kinds of specifics is impossible. Finally, words like "storm" (instead of "shower"), "severe", or "strong" indicate greater intensity of an event that may include heavy rain, frequent lightning, strong winds, or hail.